May. 25th, 2012

passionpop: (putting my foot in it)
even though the semis are yet to be aired in Australia (they start tonight) the final 26 are now confirmed. here is a quick rundown on the qualifiers and their chances
United Kingdom: 5th favourite with the bookmakers and fluctuating. sending the hump is either genius or madness and we will soon find out which. 
Hungary: this song only qualified to make up the numbers
Albania: This surprised alot of people that it even qualified, but it is an interesting song. I think it will be in will finish in the top half but the bookies don't.
Lithuania: oh this is completely there to make up the numbers. this song is an arguement for reducing the number of songs that qualify from the semi's. if this doesn't finish last, it will be pretty close.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: the bookies didn't give this song much of a chance to even qualify, I always thought it would and would possibly finish in the top half. 
Russia: this song has tightened to second favourite since (if you believe the rumours) it won the first semi (results wont be officially released until after the final). it is very popular though. Russia has such faith in this song winning they have already booked a satellite connection for after the contest to broadcast the media conference. This all makes me hope that it doesn't win. Russia you cant rig every vote
Iceland: this fantasy inspired ballad had dropped to 7th with the bookies. i think tis will be up there but there is a few massively popular ballads this year which will take votes from each other
Cyprus: will get votes from Greece, that's all
France: being straight after another upbeat number will hurt Anggun. this is the superior of the two, but it will struggle.
Italy: Third favourite with the bookies and one of my favourites. I think this has a good chance to win but being in the middle of the evening will probably hurt it and economics. it will be top 5.
Estonia: pretty boy but bad draw and too many ballads.
Norway: forget Norway this will finish in the bottom half.
Azerbaijan: will be the audience favourites which could severely Norway who are before them, but i believe there is a break after this song so Romania wont be hurt as much. Too many ballads so Azerbaijan shouldn't get 2 in a row and the bookies agree.
Romania: this has now dropped to 6th with the bookmakers. again the draw hurts it, but it makes me really want to learn the dance now, with the song so far into the evening, it will make attempts at the dance amusing.
Denmark: I have disliked this song from the start. what's worst about it though is that it is catchy. if this wins from here, it will have north sea oil to thank. lets buy a Eurovision.... sorry that's Russia
Greece: 12 points from Cyprus. couldn't afford to host next year anyway which would be a breach of the rules so can't win.
Sweden: if you believe the rumours, this was not in the top 5 with the juries in the semi, so despite being the favourite for such a long time, it plausibly wont win. most people by now will be too drunk to care anyways.
Turkey: OMG this qualified. This re-defines average.
Spain: apparently Spain have been told not to win by the broadcasters in Spain because they cant afford to host the 2013 Eurovision. they weren't really a challenge anyways because it is too ballad heavy. top ten with the bookies still
Germany: I see high points form Spain and Greece and other countries who are desperate for money. this has sat quietly in the top ten and may sneak into a top 5 finish, though it is a long shot. 
Malta: dear god how the hell did this qualify.  a fair bit of shit managed to seep into this years final.
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Morticia Adams qualified. This is the first qualification for FYRM since 2007. I am still amazed this song is actually sung in english, who'd have guessed. bottom half
Ireland: the at that everyone has been waiting for, well everyone with a sniper rifle anyways. it is better than Lipstick, but it is still Jedward and they need to be stop.
Sebia: by now the seal is well and truely broken and you need a toilet break. despite this being 4th favourite with the bookies, i would see this as an opportune moment to seek some relief. if you like big ballads though, you will have to hold on during this song though. sucks to be you.
Ukraine: this is just out of the top ten with the bookies, but it has potential. may finish top ten afterall
Moldova: and with Moldova it is finally all over. I have loved Pasha from the start and I hope he does well, Though the bookies think Turkey is better... WTF


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