passionpop: (sweet and innocent)
[personal profile] passionpop

In 6 days we will find out if Italy has won Eurovision 2017.

There has been a few shifts in the odds over the last week as rehearsals take place in Kyiv. The current top 5 are

Italy - $1.70
Portugal - $8.10
Bulgaria and Sweden - $11.50
Armenia $19.80

 

The odds for winners from the semis are (main number is Grand final odds, number in brackets is odds to win their semi):

Semi 1
Portugal - $10.20 ($3.50)
Sweden - $11.50 ($4.33)
Armenia - $19.80 ($3.25 - Favorite to take out the semi)
Azerbaijan - $29 ($10)
Australia - $51 - around double what they were 3 weeks ago ($13)
Finland - $52 ($15)
Belgium - $70 - they were top 5 three weeks ago. ($15)
Greece - $121 ($10)
Poland - $151 ($41)
Moldova - $151 ($67)
Iceland - $151 ($126 - equal longest)
Latvia -$211 ($81)
Georgia - $211 ($81)
Cyprus - $261 ($101)
Montenegro - $321 ($126 - Equal longest)
Slovenia - $321 ($101)
Czech Republic - $321 ($101)
Albania - $421 ($101)

Semi 2
Bulgaria - $11.50 ($1.72 - Favourite to take out the semi)
Romania - $24 ($6.50)
Denmark - $52 ($8)
Ireland - $67 ($51)
The Netherlands- $82 ($11)
Estonia - $121 ($10)
Hungary - $121 ($26)
Macedonia - $151 ($34)
Norway - $151 ($11)
Israel -  $151 ($13)
Croatia - $156 ($51)
Serbia - $261 ($41)
Austria - $261 ($41)
Lithuania - $261 ($201 - equal longest)
Belarus - $261 ($41)
Malta -  $321 ($101)
Switzerland - $321 ($67)
San Marino - $501 ($201 - Equal longest)

 

What does all this mean. Not much.

In the first semi there are more songs that are highly rated. The top 4-5 songs in that semi are almost definitely through to the final and the bottom 4-5 are almost definitely going home. The middle 8-10 countries are pot luck who makes the final, but wont be a threat.

In the second semi will probably go along with what the bookies think for the most part. The top 6 are through and the next 4 are probably through, again though beyond about the top 3 they are just there to make the numbers

 

As for the songs already through the to the Grand Final, the odds are

Italy - $1.70
France - $52
UK - $82
Germany - $151
Ukraine - $201 - possible political backlash
Spain - $301 - which is generous.

Most of these will probably lengthen once the semis are over.

 

the three I would put money on are Italy, Portugal and Armenia (as a roughie-ish).

 

The ones I would probably vote for.... I will get back to you on that...
 

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